Fierce Serie A rivals Inter Milan and Juventus will lock horns at the San Siro on Sunday night. Both teams have secured quarter-final berths in their respective European competitions and will now focus on this all-important derby clash before the international break.
The last Derby d’Italia ended in a 2-0 defeat for the hosts after Juventus struck twice in the second half in Turin. Second-placed Inter Milan suffered their second defeat in three matches after losing 1-2 at Spezia last week. Simone Inzaghi will be counting on his team’s excellent home record to put their league campaign back on track, having won all but one of their home fixtures in Serie A since October.
Juventus, on the other hand, have shown good away form this season. They bounced back from a 0-1 setback to Roma by beating Sampdoria 4-2 last week, making it five wins out of six in Serie A. Massimiliano Allegri’s side has an inferior record against Inter Milan in recent meetings across competitions, especially at the San Siro. To keep their slim chances of top four alive, the Bianconeri will have to complete the league double against the Nerazzurri.
Below, we look at the stats of both teams from the current season that could help predict the outcome of this match.
Goalscoring in the recent fixtures
Inter Milan have scored 47 times in Serie A 2022-23 but have shown struggling signs in the last five matches. They have taken 91 shots during this span and only scored four non-penalty goals. The xG map above shows that the Inter Milan players have missed a lot of chances in and around the six-yard box in recent matches, which is a reason for their inconsistent form. The hosts have averaged more than 18 shots in these games, which is higher than their season average of 15.31 shots per match, and yet they have failed to score enough goals.
Juventus seem to have picked up the pace in the last five matches after experiencing a turbulent stretch prior to that. They have scored 11 goals from 65 shots during this span, taking their season tally to 44 goals. They have also missed one penalty. The viz above shows that the team has penetrated the opposition’s penalty area effectively and scored a few goals from very close range. The visitors have recently averaged 13 shots per match with an accuracy rate of nearly 38%, which is consistent with their season average.
The attacking zones
The first viz above shows that most of the progressive runs and dribbles for Inter Milan have come from the flanks. They also exploit the half spaces in the central areas to progress the ball. By observing the box penetrations, we can note that the players have made lots of diagonal runs from the flanks as well as a few direct bursts through the centre. They try to create spaces inside the 18-yard box and deliver a key pass that often leads to a goal attempt.
Overall, Inter Milan averages 29.38 positional attacks and 2.65 counterattacks per match in Serie A. They try to create spaces inside the penalty box and deliver key passes that often lead to goal attempts. However, the hosts will have to convert their chances more effectively.
Meanwhile, Juventus have shown more creativity on the left side of the field. The players have made most of the box penetrations and progressive runs from the left flank. They also use the right flank to advance, but less frequently. The visitors average a slightly lower possession rate than their opponents, but they still do well to rotate the ball and show a clinical nature in front of the goal.
Juventus launches 26.31 positional attacks and 2.35 counterattacks per 90 minutes in Serie A. They will look to put pressure on their fierce rivals to keep them from building momentum in this derby.
The defensive territories
The two visuals above compare the defensive territory of the two teams in Serie A. Juventus deploys a deeper backline than the hosts and makes more interceptions in the defensive third, highlighting their defensive stronghold. Inter Milan, on the other hand, intercepts more balls in the opposition’s half, which proves crucial in launching counterattacks. Generally, both teams do not tend to concede many fouls close to the 18-yard box, although Inter Milan gave away one foul in the penalty box in the last match.
Overall, the hosts average 80.7 recoveries and 38.42 interceptions per match, while the visitors average 78.31 recoveries and 40.35 interceptions per match.
Key players
Inter Milan will count on Lautaro Martinez to display his attacking prowess and guide them to victory. With 14 goals, he is the team’s top scorer and second in the Serie A scoring charts. He has also provided three assists. The Argentine forward takes 3.79 shots per match (41.3% accuracy), and the Juventus defenders will not want to give him much time and space on the ball, especially inside the penalty box.
Adrien Rabiot has been in fine form of late with his crucial goal contributions. His seven goals and two assists in Serie A make him one of the top contributors for Juventus. He has scored thrice in the last three games and is a key figure in the midfield. Rabiot makes 4.5 passes to the final third and 1.77 passes to the penalty area per match. Inter players will have the task of blocking these passing channels for the likes of Dusan Vlahovic.
Team news
Inter Milan have a couple of fresh injury issues in their squad: Alessandro Bastoni and Robin Gosens. Simone Inzaghi could look to reshuffle his lineup, and Romelu Lukaku and Milan Skriniar could be given the nod to start.
Massimiliano Allegri has a lengthy injury list to manage in the meantime. The likes of Leonardo Bonucci, Paul Pogba, Alex Sandro, and Arkadiusz Milik are ruled out for Juventus. Moise Kean could reunite with the squad after serving his suspension.
The Derby d’Italia is often a thrilling fixture, with either team well capable of packing a punch to the other. Both Inter Milan and Juventus will come prepared with their game plans and motivations to assert dominance in this classic rivalry. The stakes are high with both rivals contesting for the top four, and fans can expect either side to net a few goals.
Visuals via TFA data viz engine
