Milan and Roma will look to continue their winning momentum in Serie A when they face each other at San Siro on matchday 17. Milan won two goals to one against Salernitana on their return to top-flight action after a seven-week break for the World Cup, while Roma won one goal to nil against Bologna.
Milan will be eager to keep the pressure on league leaders Napoli, who were defeated by Inter Milan in their first league game of the season in game week 16. They will be optimistic about securing maximum points in front of their fans.
Meanwhile, Roma currently sits in sixth place in the Serie A table, three points behind fourth-placed Inter Milan. They remain in contention to qualify for European football next season.
We now look at the stats for both teams compared to each other for the current season.
How have the teams performed?
The above viz shows the percentile rank of the home team in comparison to other Serie A teams. Milan have had an incredible start to their Serie A campaign this season, currently sitting second in the table. The last season’s Serie A title winners are trying their best to give tough competition to the current league leaders, Napoli, who are five points ahead of Milan after 16 Serie A games this season. Milan are currently heading towards European glory in terms of securing a spot that gives them a chance to compete in the UEFA Champions League. They have become a high goal-scoring team, and their percentile rank is high in the attacking department, having scored the third most goals in the current Serie A campaign. Milan are very solid regarding goals per 90 minutes and xG per 90. Milan dominates a few of the stats regarding possession and defence as well. In defence, they have been average this season, conceding 16 goals.
The above viz shows the percentile rank of the away team in comparison to other Serie A teams. Roma have had a mixed start to the Serie A campaign this season. Roma currently sits in sixth place in the Serie A table. Roma have struggled to get a result in their favour against the top Serie A teams. Roma are having difficulty putting up numbers in the charts. We can observe that Roma are ranked very low in the attacking and possession departments. Defensively, they are performing well and have conceded just 14 goals in the current Serie A campaign.
One of the reasons behind some early success for both teams is their counterattack efficiency. Milan are the top-ranked team in terms of the efficiency of counterattacks, with 29% overall efficiency. In terms of efficiency in positional attacks, they are currently at 11% efficiency. Milan averages 31.56 positional attacks and 3.19 counterattacks per match. They take 15.5 shots per match and have an accuracy rate of 34.3%. During the 2021–2022 Serie A season, Milan averaged 31.29 positional attacks, 3.26 counterattacks per match, and 14.97 shots per match with an accuracy rate of 34.5%.
The visitors also have a similar record. Roma are the third-best team in terms of efficiency in counterattacks, with 25% overall efficiency. In terms of efficiency in positional attacks, they are currently at 11% efficiency. They average 25.44 positional attacks and 3.13 counterattacks. The shot average is 12.31 per match, and the accuracy rate is 35%. Both teams can hit each other on the counterattacks. During the 2021–2022 Serie A season, Roma averaged 28.5 positional attacks, 3.08 counterattacks per match, and 14.53 shots per match with an accuracy rate of 33.5%.
Both teams in attack
Milan are currently second in the 2022-23 Italian Serie A, with 36 points from 16 games played. They have won 11 matches, drawn three, and lost two. They have scored 31 goals and conceded 16 goals. We can observe from the above viz that the team has scored most of its goals from inside the box. The team has also scored a few goals from outside the box. Milan has a 1.83 xG per 90 and an average of 15.5 shots per 90.4. Milan leads the chart for big chances created this season, creating 52 in 16 Serie A games.
Roma are currently sixth in the 2022-23 Italian Serie A, with 30 points from 16 games played. They have won nine matches, drawn three, and lost four. They have scored 19 goals and conceded 14. We can observe from the above viz that the team has scored most of its goals from inside the box. Roma players have massively underperformed their xG this season. Roma players have missed 37 big chances so far this Serie A campaign. Roma have an xG per 90 of 1.74 and an average of 12.31 shots per 90.
Numbers in defence
The above chart represents the ranking of teams in Serie A based on their percentage of defensive and aerial duel wins. It can be seen that Roma are ranked second with a 59% win rate in defensive duels. Milan, however, is not far behind at 56%. On average, the home team makes 36.63 interceptions versus 38.75 interceptions per 90 for Roma. Roma are the far superior team in the air, winning 57% of their aerial duels to Milan’s 51%.
Rafael Leao has been the home team’s talisman this season and is expected to lead from the front. He has scored seven goals and provided four assists in the current season of Serie A. Leao likes to perform on the big stage. Rafael Leao’s pace, dribbling, and playmaking skills allow him to beat the opposition’s defence on pace. He will look to take advantage of this in the match. Leao has provided eleven goal contributions in 15 Serie A appearances this season and is currently joint-top for most goal contributions in the current Serie A campaign.
Paulo Dybala is most likely to lead the line for the visitors. He has scored five goals and provided two assists in the current season of Serie A. Milan’s defence will have to remain tight, and they can’t afford to give him space in the final third. He will be the greatest threat to the visitors. Dybala has provided seven goal contributions in just ten Serie A appearances this season.
Milan will be without their first-choice goalkeeper, Mike Maignan, and the attacking duo of Ante Rebic and Divock Origi, all of whom are struggling with injuries.
Jose Mourinho and his Roma side have been lucky with the injuries. Most Roma first-team players are fully fit and expected to start with their first-choice line-up.
This will be game week 17’s most significant match as two Serie A heavyweights, one fighting for a top-four position and another fighting to defend the Serie A title, go head-to-head at San Siro. Milan will have the home advantage, but it won’t be easy for them to beat Mourinho’s Roma. Both teams will need a bit of magic in the attack and hope their strikers get on the scoresheet.
Visuals via TFA data viz engine